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Prediction for CME (2013-08-02T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-08-02T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/1181/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-08-05T04:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Aug 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1809 (N12E33, Cao/beta)
produced a B7/Sf flare at 02/2047 UTC, which was the largest event of
the period. All regions on the visible disk were either stable or
decaying. A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a 13-degree
filament eruption at 02/1240 UTC near S23W25, is expected to make a
glancing hit at Earth early on 05 Aug.
 ...
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2013 Aug 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 03-Aug 05 2013 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 03-Aug 05 2013
 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05
00-03UT 1 3 2 
03-06UT 1 3 3 
06-09UT 1 2 4 
09-12UT 1 2 3 
12-15UT 1 2 3 
15-18UT 2 2 3 
18-21UT 3 2 2 
21-00UT 3 2 2 
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
...

Lead Time: 46.58 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-08-03T05:25Z

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